Tornado forecasting is guessing game for meteorologists
Staff reporter
When it comes right down to it, no one can predict the weather.
Short forecasts are possible with advanced technology but knowing if there is going to be more severe weather than usual this spring is anyone's guess.
"There is no scientifically sound way of saying this is going to be more busy or less busy than previous years," said Dave Freeman, chief meteorologist of Wichita television station KSN.
The television weather forecaster said he has not seen any broadly-accepted documentation.
"We have to be very careful when looking at broad seasonal forecasts," he said. "We look at trends."
Severe weather struck earlier than usual and hard with an EF4 tornado reported in Anderson and Linn counties March 7.
Severe weather before April isn't all that unusual. Freeman could recall tornadoes as early as January.
"What is unusual is having this strong of a storm this early in the year," Freeman said, and recalled the Hesston tornado being on March 13, 1990.
However, the recent tornado was the first time a tornado had been classified as an EF4 with the Enhanced Fujita Scale, Freeman said. For that designation, winds are calculated to be up to 200 miles per hour.
The new classification provides a more accurate way to classify tornadoes by looking at the damage to nature. With the new scale, residents should rethink safety precautions.
"I'm really nervous about the idea of safe rooms," Freeman said. "When I look at these high-end storms, I'm thinking the best shelter is going to be below ground."
Trends
According to Kansas Adjutant General and Director of Kansas Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security Maj. Gen. Tod Bunting, Kansas was hit by a record-breaking 135 tornadoes in 2005. There were only 92 tornadoes in 2006 but two records were surpassed.
On Oct. 26, a record-breaking 28 tornadoes occurred, beating the October single-day record of 19 set in 2000. Another record was set Jan. 3, 2006, when three tornadoes occurred, which was the first time since 1950 that tornadoes struck in January.
Bunting said that tornadoes often get the big headlines but thunderstorm winds often cause more damage and are more frequent than tornadoes. Flooding, particularly flash flooding, claims the lives of more people than any other weather emergency.
Safety first
South-central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma have more tornadoes per square mile than any other place in the world. That's why it is so important for residents to be aware of the weather and take the necessary precautions should severe conditions occur.
This week is Severe Weather Awareness Week in Kansas. A statewide tornado drill was held Tuesday to give schools and other public facilities an opportunity to practice tornado safety.
According to Freeman, when a tornado watch has been issued it means that tornadoes are possible in the watch area.
"This is a good time to brush up on what you would do if a tornado is spotted," Freeman said. He suggested gathering together items to take to a tornado shelter should there be a need to take cover.
When a tornado warning has been issued, it means that a tornado has been observed either by radar or by a spotter in the field. It is time to take action immediately.
"Get to your tornado shelter and stay there until the danger has passed," Freeman said. "Do not go outside to try and see or videotape the storm. This can cost you your life."
The best tornado shelter is underground such as a basement or cellar. If using a basement, go to the center of the room and get under a stairwell or a heavy piece of furniture such as a pool table or work bench. This will protect from falling debris.
"If your home doesn't have a basement or you live in an apartment, go to the lowest level and get inside a small, interior room," Freeman said. "The most important thing is no windows."
Closets and bathrooms are ideal. Take pillows, blankets, or even a mattress in the room to protect yourself from flying debris.
For those who live in a mobile home or are traveling in a car, the safety rule is very simple — GET OUT, Freeman said.
"Both of these are too light to withstand the powerful winds within a tornado. If you live in a mobile home park, go to the park's tornado shelter. If you don't have a shelter or are in a car get well away from the building or car and lie flat in a ditch or depression," Freeman said.
Be prepared
Make sure you are ready for severe weather by putting together an emergency preparedness kit and keep it in the shelter or safe area.
The kit should include:
— first aid kit,
— flashlight and extra batteries,
— battery-powered radio and/or television,
— drinking water,
— non-perishable foods,
— hard-soled shoes,
— cell phone, and
— blankets.
Tornado facts
A tornado is a violently rotating column of air and often, but not always, visible as a funnel cloud.
In order for a vortex to be classified as a tornado, it must be in contact with the ground and the cloud base.
Simply, tornadoes form when warm, moist Gulf air meets cold, Canadian air and dry air from the Rockies. However, many thunderstorms form under those conditions and never even come close to producing tornadoes. Even when the large-scale environment is extremely favorable for tornadic thunderstorms, not every thunderstorm spawns a tornado.
The most destructive and deadly tornadoes occur from supercells which are rotating thunderstorms with a well-defined radar circulation called a mesocyclone (parent circulation in the thunderstorm). Supercells can produce damaging hail, severe non-tornadic winds, unusually frequent lightning, and flash floods.
Tornadoes can appear from any direction. Most move from southwest to northeast, or west to east. Some tornadoes have changed direction at mid-path or even back-tracked. A tornado can double-back, for example, when its bottom is hit by outflow winds from a thunderstorm's core.
Some areas of the U.S. tend to have more paths from a specific direction such as northwest in Minnesota or southeast in coastal south Texas. This is because of an increased frequency of certain tornado-producing weather patterns.
Rain, wind, lightning, and hail characteristics vary from storm to storm, from one hour to the next, and even with the direction the storm is moving. While large hail can indicate the presence of an unusually dangerous thunderstorm, and can happen before a tornado, don't depend on it. Hail or any particular pattern of rain, lightning, or calmness is not a reliable predictor of tornado threat.
Tornadoes can last from several seconds to more than an hour. The longest-lived tornado in history is really unknown because so many of the long-lived tornadoes reported from the early 1900s and before are believed to have been tornado series. Most tornadoes last less than 10 minutes.
A barometer can start dropping many hours or even days in advance of a tornado. Strong pressure falls will often happen as the mesocyclone moves overhead or nearby. The biggest drop will be in the tornado itself.
A waterspout is a tornado over water. Waterspouts are common along the southeast U.S. coast. They are smaller and weaker than the more intense than those on land but still can be quite dangerous. Waterspouts can overturn small boats, damage ships, and do significant damage when hitting land and kill people.
